Hi Wilhelm, pleased to meet you!
Mine was more crippling than discomfort; the kind where you can't hide it because limping is pronounced and a gentle hug would make me scream. Beware the distant uncle who hasn't seen you in 3 yrs! (On a 1-10 pain scale, I'd generally say 5-8 was my norm... 5 being a pretty good day, 8 being not so tolerable, and 3 a rarity.) That was before Remicade. After Remicade, 0-2!
While pain can be an obvious gauge, there are some few people with AS who fuse with comparatively little pain. My brother's SI joints are fusing, enough to show on regular xray, yet he has never experienced SI joint pain.
Loss of range is also telling, yet some loss can be due to stiffening tendons and ligaments and does not necessarily mean fusion has occurred. I think the most accurate predictor of future fusion is signs of vertebral degeneration and bone growth on a current xray or MRI. In other words, if it is already happening then it will most likely keep happening.
While I wouldn't let your guard down (since AS is a progressive disease), on a brighter note it is very positive to have caught it early, and with more research and newer better meds in the pipeline, I think you have good reason to be feeling optimistic!!
Good luck - and glad to have you here posting with us!